The Periodical: 11th February 2022
Equity and Crypto phasing clarity? Gold and Silver build momentum and the Dollar Index pushed back from the 18 month nominal peak.
Chart of the Week: Gold
This week saw some fairly solid confirmations of 80 day nominal lows in both equity indices and cryptocurrency, the latter of which led the pack and helped us somewhat resolve a 20 day margin of error in both. Subsequent to the excellent short opportunity in late January we had been questioning the phasing of the most recent 20 day nominal low. That has likely been resolved to a low of at least 80 day magnitude, although absolute confirmation is really only established with an interaction with the 80 day FLD. Both categories have now recently formed 20 day nominal peaks with varying degrees of amplitude modulation. The position of the 40 week low is more under question in crypto so the move to the 40 day nominal low, expected at the end of February, will be telling.
In precious metals both Gold and Silver have likely recented made respective 80 day nominal troughs and are pushing up toward the 40 week nominal peak, expected mid March. Both have been consolidating for months so expect some explosive moves higher in the coming weeks, targets of 1870 for Gold, established some weeks ago, and 25-27 for Silver (18 month FLD resistance) look likely to be achieved. Uranium (via URA) has just made it’s target of 22 yesterday with a move from what is at least a 40 day nominal low. A possible short is on the cards here if the phasing is accurate in the next week or two.
Forex has been excellent this week with USDCAD resolving an 80 day nominal low and setting up a short into the 40 day nominal low due at the end of the month. EURGBP, quite a dog in recent times, shot up to reach our target of 0.845 from what is ostensibly the 20 week nominal low. Price now looks to have formed a peak of at least 40 day magnitude. AUDNZD is forming it’s 40 day nominal peak with resistance above at the 18 month FLD. That is likely to stop the large uptrend this instrument has displayed since late last year and the 18 month nominal trough. The Dollar Index was forced back down from it’s challenge to what is very likely an 18 month nominal peak. The move was swift and our target of 94 is likely to be achieved in the next week or two.
In the energy market a tale of two phasings with Oil due for a rephase at the next report, the extremely bullish upswing of late attenuating components below the 80 day nominal cycle. On the other hand, Natural Gas has once again provided an excellent swing trade, moving from it’s 80 day nominal peak on the 2nd of February to our target of 4.6 and now tracking the 20 week FLD down. 80 day nominal low expected toward the early end of February.
For all our readers we provided several beginner articles related to digital filtering and specifically how to correctly use moving averages. The latest in the series looked at the most useful of the filter types, the bandpass filter. Check it out!