Uranium: Market Cycles - 29th March 2023

The 18 month nominal component in Uranium (via URA) is now due, we look at the evidence for the formation of it and, in addition, the path of price over the coming months

Essentials: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Underlying Trend | Time Frequency Analysis

Analysis Summary

Uranium, phased in the main via the Global X ETF URA 0.00%↑ is very near an 18 month nominal low. This has been anticipated for several months since the 18 month peak and retrace of early 2022 formed and as the slow triangulation, that typified price action over recent months, begins to resolve. Price is very near the 54 month FLD (shown on the long term ST analysis below) and is in an excellent position for both price and time inflection points.

The 20 and 40 week components at the medium term are dictating most of the power in price and that should be retained in the next move up, tempered somewhat by longer components. Time frequency analysis below demonstrates the clarity of the 20 week wave in particular. The longer component (nominally the 54 month wave) suggests a lower low in mid-late 2024, the approach to which may be fairly sideways and track the FLD, a bullish sign. This assumption makes the reasonable inference that the trough in early 2020 was of 9 year magnitude. The proposed low in 2024 will be a tremendous buying opportunity in Uranium and we will track the progress of this next 18 month component with anticipation of that.