Sigma-L: Expert Market Cycles Insight

Sigma-L brings the power of modern signal processing techniques, with a nod to the insight of engineer JM Hurst, to retail traders, funds and institutions.

Expect a compact and frequent email newsletter format, covering major market turning points and penned by an expert in the application and design of signal processing software for financial markets.

Before and after in our US Stock Market Composite (SPX, DJIA, RUT). Identification of the prominent periodic feature below 100 days, at around 75 days average wavelength. This is an example of one trough iteration in October 2023.

Proposed robustly by pioneering engineer JM Hurst in the 1960s and 1970s, periodic motion in financial markets is often bewildering for the average trader. Although an attempt was made by Hurst himself to simplify the techniques to a totally practical level in the now rare Cyclitec Cycles Course, many new and enthusiastic students are often disconcerted with the mathematical foundation at the heart of this approach.

A beautiful periodic signal around 75 days in our Uranium composite, which tracks several sector related instruments, underpins the course structure in this important metal

Today, innovations in software and signal processing techniques would have amazed Hurst, allowing a huge range of markets to be subjected to this kind of time-series analysis.

An extremely good signal present in the Gold market, at around 55 days average wavelength since March 2021. On each report we give a rating for the signal identified, based upon time-series and signal processing analysis criteria of statistical significance.

Our bespoke time frequency analysis allows the investor or trader to leverage the predictive power of periodic functions present in financial markets. The edge a trader or general investor can gain from a deep knowledge of these techniques will be indispensable.

Here the remarkable cyclicality of the VIX volatility index is highlighted with a wonderful component around 68 days present, amongst others. This kind of visualisation can help identify periodic functions in markets and their relationships to each other over time.

Market Coverage

An extremely coherent periodic wave is present in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Here we track the latest move down from a peak in late October 2023

Core Instruments

In our core offering to paid subscribers we cover a wide range of instruments, enough for the vast majority of traders and investors today. Below is our current list, as of December 2023. Note, each instrument will also include reports on significant periodicities at varying wavelengths, the only qualifying criteria being quality of signal. For example the 80 day component, 20 week and so on:

Stockmarkets
US Stock Market Composite (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000)
S&P 500
DAX
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Metals
Precious Metals Composite (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium)
Gold
Silver
Copper
Lithium
Steel
Zinc
Uranium

Forex
EUR Composite (EUR vs JPY/USD/GBP/AUD/CHF/CAD/NZD/HKD)
GBP Composite (GBP vs USD/EUR/AUD/CAD/JPY)
CAD Composite (CAD vs USD/EUR/GBP/JPY)
JPY Composite (JPY vs GBP/EUR/CAD/AUD/USD)
Dollar Index

Cryptocurrency
Crypto Composite (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Solana, Monero)
Bitcoin

Energy
US Natural Gas
WTI Crude Oil

Commodities
WisdomTree Agriculture Composite (AIGA, AGAP)
Wheat Futures

Founding Members

Subscribers who have upgraded or purchased founding member status are permitted to request one extra bespoke time frequency analysis per month on any instrument data is available for. For example, you may wish to compare the performance of TSLA against the core stock market composite, or perhaps you have a particular eye on a gold mining ETF that is closely correlated to the gold spot price in the core offering. This will be a single shot analysis that conforms to our usual format, crucially featuring our interpretation, defining time based targets and examining the bandwidth of interest for you. For example you may wish to examine the bandwidth of 200 days and lower in uranium ETF URA, or perhaps 100 days and lower in energy ETF XLE. Think carefully about which instrument you wish to request, many individuals stocks and ETFs are highly correlated to the core instruments, only differing by individual amplitude (variance or volatility). If you think you have found an instrument that diverges, spectrally, from the core offerings it may well be an excellent candidate for our time frequency microscope!

Importantly, all founding member request analyses will also be sent to all other founding members, who may find it useful to examine a particular focused time frequency report. This gives significant added value for founding members.

Please ask us for this bespoke analysis if you are a founding member, ideally via a DM on X (@tradinghurst).

In all cases subscribers are emailed the moment a new post goes live with our time targets and ranges clearly defined, in line with our time frequency analysis.

We also (from March 2023) update a trade report with each subsequent post for full transparency and insight, such is our confidence in the robust nature of this approach. This includes posting losses!

The fantastic signal in Copper Futures around the 79 day mark.

Our Software and Techniques

Our analysis is now given mainly via the microscope of an unbiased time frequency analysis. For more details on this technique please check out our article: Hacking the Uncertainty Principle: Time Frequency

We keep an eye on longer term cycles too. Above a before and after in WTI Crude Oil, the component around 16 months is readily discerned.

A typical time frequency analysis. In this case the instrument is USDCAD, daily. We identify a component of excellent signal quality around 75 days.

Gold and the component around 300 days from this sample, price is also highpassed.

DISCLAIMER: This website/newsletter and the charts/projections contained within it are intended for educational purposes only. Results and projections are hypothetical. We accept no liability for any losses incurred as a result of assertions made due to the information contained within Sigma-L. This report is not intended to instruct investment or purchase of any financial instrument, derivative or asset connected to the information conveyed in the report. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Subscribe to Sigma-L - Market Cycles

Join with other elite traders & investors for access to the leading time-centric technical analysis in financial markets. A unique, signal processing based approach identifies crucial turning points in a range of major markets across the planet.

People

David F

@sigmal

Full time trading for 8+ years. Merged JM Hurst's original great insight with modern signal processing techniques. Often contrary views on markets. Also code financial market based algorithms, play piano when I can and love cricket!