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WTI Crude Oil - 27th October 2023 | @ 16.4 Months | + 17.8%
Last trade: + 17.8% | 'B' class signal detected in WTI Crude Oil. Average wavelength of 498 days (16.4 months) over 10 iterations since December 2010. Currently peaking.
ΣL Cycle Summary
In this long term analysis a prominent periodic component is evident at around 16 months average wavelength from a sample of 10 iterations, since 2010. Prior to 2015 the signal was amplitude modulated somewhat by the shorter component at around 270 days, also shown below for your interest. The longer component, which is the main subject of this report, is due to trough mid 2024 at the current wavelengths and frequency modulation.
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Late Buy - WTI Crude Oil 29th May 2023
Entry: 29th May 2023 @ 73.04
Exit: 27th October 2023 @ 86.04
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 44 Days
Next Trough Range: May 29th - August 25th, 2024
Next Peak Range: January 30th - April 28th, 2025
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 12th July, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.