Oil: Hurst Cycles - 13th July 2022

Oil hits upside target of 115 from the 80 day nominal low in late June and reverses back sharply. Larger components are now influencing price to the downside, we look at the next moves in this report.

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

At our last report into WTI Crude we anticipated the latest trough of the 80 day component, running at around 60-70 days according to Sentient Trader and the time frequency analysis:

From 23rd June:

The 80 day component is well overdue here, with the current iteration spanning 73 days against an average of around 60-70 from the two types of analysis below.

From this incoming 80 day nominal low we can expect another test at the peaks, the 80 day FLD resistance at 115-120 likely the limit as we move into July.

That low occurred on the 22nd of June and subsequently moved up to our target of 115-120. It is significant that price only reached up to just beyond 115 before reversing back in a bearish fashion through the 20 week FLD (short term chart below, green). Therefore, we now have a price target to the downside for the 20 week component, described below and due late August this year.