Oil: Hurst Cycles - 23rd June 2022

Price falls to target around the 20 and 40 week FLD support. We look at the incoming 80 day nominal low and likely price movement thereafter

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

At our last report we detailed the process of peaking in the 80 day nominal component and the more generalised ‘rolling over’ of larger components in the oil market. Price came down to test the 20 week FLD mid June:

Support is likely at the 20 week VTL (green on short term chart) around 105 and lower to the 80 day FLD support at around 100. Price is currently slightly above the 10 and 20 day FLDs, providing a good risk to reward ratio, should targets be achieved on this trade.

A brief pause at the 20 week VTL was a classic bulltrap and likely stopped out a few weak hands. This VTL had been tested several times in the past weeks and with it’s median price cross now fully confirms a peak of 40 week magnitude (at least) occurred early March.