USDCAD: Hurst Cycles - 27th September 2022
The 9 year component low finally exerts some bullish pressure on price as targets up at 1.3 are easily surpassed. Will the excellent signal at the 80 day component be retained as we moved forward?
Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend
Analysis Summary
In our last report into the wonderfully cyclical USDCAD we mentioned that a more bullish move above 1.30-1.31 would signal the first indications of the underlying trend (sigma-l) pushing up:
From 12th August Report:
At this stage of the 18 month component we should expect some resistance to price at the 80 day FLD in due course, at around 1.285-1.29. A move above the 80 day FLD to a cross target will suggest the underlying influence from the larger components is starting to influence price action more.
We saw that influence in the latest iteration of the 80 day component subsequent to the 40 day low forming on the 13th September. Clearly this pair is correlated with the USD market in general but it is only recently price has started to accelerate markedly. Indeed it is the relatively neutral influence of larger periodic components that has revealed the exemplary 80 day component signal (@ ~ 75 days) shown on the time frequency analysis below.