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S&P 500 - 31st October 2023 | @ 77 Days | + 5.53%
Last trade: + 5.53% | 'B' class signal detected in the S&P 500. Running at an average wavelength of 77 days over 14 iterations since Feb 2021. Currently troughing.
ΣL Cycle Summary
With updates plentiful across multiple stock market indices for this prominent wave, it is the S&P 500 on the menu here. The component, running at around 77 days average wavelength from a sample of 14 iterations since early 2021, has been relatively well behaved and is notably more apparent after the low of mid-late 2022 as the influence of larger components diminished. The next cycle peak, detailed below, is due early December (+- 9 days FM) but be watchful for any possible left translation in price.
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Sell - S&P 500 20th September 2023
Entry: 20th September 2023 @ 4402.20
Exit: 31st October 2023 @ 4158.56
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Troughing / Troughed
FM: +- 9 Days
Next Trough Range: 9th January - 27th January, 2024
Next Peak Range: 1st December - 19th December, 2023
Sigma-L Recommendation: Buy
Time Target: ~ 10th December, 2023
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.