US Natural Gas - 14th December 2023 | @ 110 Days | + 22.59%
Last trade: + 22.59% | 'B' class signal detected in US Natural Gas. Average wavelength of 110 days over 9 iterations since July 2021. Currently troughing.
ΣL Cycle Summary
After a prolonged period of low amplitude, mentioned in our last report on Natural Gas, the down leg of the wave in focus here has increased in power. The cycle is approaching the latest trough iteration shortly - bulls will hope for a sustained period of power in this component to be reflected in the forthcoming move up. The next peak for this component is due mid February, 2024, at the current detected wavelength. Note the slight increased in average wavelength over the last report (104→110), reflecting some uncertainty in phase due to the decreased power since the midpoint of the sample. The signal retains it’s ‘B’ rating.
Trade Update
See also: Live ΣL Portfolio & History
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Sell - Natural Gas 25th October 2023
Entry: 25th October 2023 @ 3.01
Exit: 14th December 2023 @ 2.33
Gain: 22.59%
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Detected Signal Class: B - learn more
Average Wavelength: 110.11 Days
Completed Iterations: 9
Component Yield Over Sample: 423.87% - learn more
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Troughing
FM: +- 3 Days
AM: 0.47047
Next Trough Range: 21st December - 27th December, 2023
Next Peak Range: 11th February - 17th February, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Early Buy
Time Target: ~ 14th February, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.
Based on current p/a, how do you see the next few weeks playing out? Thank you in advance :)
Hi David, you have natgas troughing roughly Feb 14 while your Feb chart has it peaking Feb 14 ( both 110 days cycle). I assume you meant to show green ( trough) not red ( peak) on your Feb chart as you now have it shown.