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US Natural Gas - 25th October 2023 | @ 104 Days | + 14.23%
Last trade: + 14.23% | 'B' class signal detected in US Natural Gas. Average wavelength of 104 days over 7 iterations since Aug 2021. Currently peaking.
ΣL Cycle Summary
Although heavily attenuated in relative power over the last couple of iterations, this periodic component at around 100 days is superbly stationary in frequency. We speculated at that last report whether the trough would bring increased amplitude over the interim to the current peak. That materialised somewhat, although compared to the period August 2021 to February 2023 it is relatively asinine. The next trough of this component is due in December.
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Buy - US Natural Gas 4th September 2023
Entry: 4th September 2023 @ 2.6377
Exit: 25th October 2023 @ 3.0130
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 3 Days
Next Trough Range: 11th December - 17th December, 2023
Next Peak Range: 1st February - 7th February, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 14th December, 2023
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.