Natural Gas: Hurst Cycles - 16th November 2022
Price collapses to our target of 5.73 and support around the 18 month FLD is imminent. An adjustment to the phasing suggests the low as a more probable position for the 40 week component trough
Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend
Analysis Summary
US Natural Gas collapsed in late October from a very weak 40 day component, described in our last report as a reliable signal from the phasing analysis. Price reached the 20 week FLD cross target of 5.73 and is now around the 18 month FLD support, most likely completing the final 40 day component in the current 80 day wave.
We now have an incoming and more compelling position for the 40 week component, the last trough of which was questioned in October:
From 14th October Report:
The placement of the longer components, namely the 40 week wave, is now under scrutiny. The most likely candidate for the low is in July this year, although it would be a significant frequency modulation of the component. To clarify this placement we need to see the next 80 day component trough and confirmation, currently due mid November.
With the low almost in …