Natural Gas: Hurst Cycles - 14th October 2022

Price reaches target of 9 from 80 day nominal low 7th September. A subsequent, unexpected collapse forces a re-think on the phasing of longer components. We look at the options amid this uncertainty

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

US Natural Gas has been significantly more bearish than anticipated for a low of 40 week magnitude, alluded to in the last report. Although price hit our target of 9-9.5 from the low on the 7th September, the subsequent collapse is certainly not befitting a larger component low.

At these points of uncertainty the skilled Hurstonian/cyclical trader considers which components they do have confidence in and, in this case, that component is likely the 40 day nominal wave. This is shown on the short term chart below running at an average wavelength of around 32 days and having recently troughed at the start of October.