Natural Gas: Hurst Cycles - 16th January 2023

A weak bounce from the 40 week nominal component precedes a collapse in the US Natural Gas price. We look at an incoming short term low and prospects over the next few months.

Essentials: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend | Time Frequency Analysis

Analysis Summary

Natural Gas made a brief flurry upwards, subsequent to our last report in November 2022 in which we explored the convoluted placement of the 40 week component low. Whilst price hit and exceeded our target range of 6.5-7 the follow through from this component has been weak, further emphasising the 4.5 year nominal peak probability we mentioned in November.

From 16th November Report:

We can expect it unlikely to breach the previous highs near 10, the 4.5 year nominal peak has probably occurred already. A test of the 20 week component FLD is highly likely at around 6.5-7 and should amplitude remain in the 20 week component until February, a test of the 40 week FLD around 7-8.

Clearly amplitude at the 20 week component to the bullish side has collapsed, replaced by a bearish emphasis that is now likely to be troughing i…