Gold: Hurst Cycles - 15th December 2022
Gold has likely established an 18 month nominal low, a higher low at the 20 week component early 2023 confirmation. In this report we look out some new features of our analysis and the latest moves
Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend
Analysis Summary
We discussed the possibility of the 18 month nominal low occurring in late September during our last report into Gold and this is now most likely the case. Price has made a significant move from that low and the wavelength of the component is well in line with the average from a time frequency analysis. That average is around 15 months in duration. Accordingly we have adjusted the phasing on Sentient Trader to reflect this. The position of larger components, most notably the 4.5 year component, is uncertain but if we are to have a bias it is to the downside with the next trough of that wave due in early 2024.
Being relatively early in this current 18 month iteration we must await further evidence prior to confirming the low in September more formally. That will likely come at the 20 week nominal low, due February according to the Sent…