Oil: Hurst Cycles - 7th March 2022

WTI Crude - US Dollar | Phasing Analysis Update, Outlook & Trading Strategy

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Phasing Analysis

Long Term

Components greater than and including the 18 month nominal cycle

Medium Term

Components less than and including the 18 month nominal cycle

Short Term

Components around the 80 day nominal cycle

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Summary

The phasing analysis in Oil has been somewhat ambigious of late. This is no suprise when looking at the price action from the December 2021 low, it is almost completely linear. Whilst we were expecting a 20 week nominal low to occur around the start of February it is likely that low was only of 80 day magnitude. Most certainly the move up from that 80 day nominal low has been influenced by fundamental factors. It is most interesting to observe the divergence between oil and equity markets during this period, a quite unusual event. They share long term commonality as seen in the long term phasing presented and will likely converge once again as time passes through this 54 month component.