ΣL US Stock Market Composite - 7th February 2024 | @ 252 Days
'B' class signal in Sigma-L US stock market composite (Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500). Average wavelength of 252 days over 13 iterations since April 2015. Currently peaking.
ΣL Cycle Summary
A new addition to Sigma-L, this is the main periodic driver of price in the medium to long term within US stock markets. This feature is also present in other global indices, including the NASDAQ to a greater or lesser degree. Demonstrating sublime stationarity during the period 2016-2020, it was subsequently suppressed within the larger uptrend between 2020 and late 2021. Recently a period of consolidation has once again clarified the wavelength at around 250 days. The move up from the most recent trough in late October 2023 (detailed here via the ubiquitous 80 day wave) has been typified by high amplitude for the up leg, we will now get to see if the amplitude is maintained to the downside. The next trough is anticipated in July for this component with some mild frequency modulation of around 20 days. Note we are a touch early for the anticipated peak at the current wavelength but certainly within the FM error, more detail below. This wave is a worthy addition to the site at this crucial juncture for subscribers to be aware of.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Detected Signal Class: B - learn more
Average Wavelength: 251.54 Days
Completed Iterations: 13
FM: +- 23 Days
AM: N/A (Composite)
Next Trough Range: 16th June - August 1st, 2024
Next Peak Range: October 21st - December 6th, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 9th July, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.