S&P 500: Hurst Cycles - 18th November 2022
The S&P 500 moves from what is now likely to be the 18 month nominal low, formed mid October. As price reaches an imminent 80 day component peak, we look at what to expect and the trading strategy
Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend
Analysis Summary
The S&P 500 has performed relatively poorly when placed against the DJIA in recent weeks, aswell as European counterparts in the FTSE and DAX. Taken alone, this could cause the naive analyst to conclude the probability of the 18 month component low occurring mid October is lower. However, when taken in the round and giving a nod to commonality amongst global markets, it is highly likely the larger low has, infact, occurred.
The price action we alluded to in our last report was relatively bullish, although the 20 day FLD was breached with some vigour.
From 26th October Report:
So, the next move is crucial is clarifying the low on the 13th October. Which other aspects of price action can we examine for more evidence? Well, we can look at where price will likely find support in this next move and correlate it to what we might expect for eac…