S&P 500 (SPY) Cycles - 22nd August 2025 | @ 259 Day (~ 37 Week) Cycle | + 13.29%
Last trade: + 13.29% | 'A' class signal detected in the S&P 500 (via SPY). Running at an average wavelength of 259 days (~ 37 Weeks) over 15 iterations since February 2015. Currently peaking
ΣL Cycle Summary
After we noted the peaking process of the nominal 40 week wave in the wider market a few weeks ago, it is now time to revisit our S&P 500 analysis, via the popular ETF, SPY. The S&P 500 exhibits this cycle exceptionally well and is the standout long term wave for many years in this index. Indeed this feature has been stable for well over 10 years but we need not take that many sample iterations to conclude this is a significant periodic feature.
The most recent trough, back in April of this year, kicked off a very sharp bullish retrace that eventually broke new highs. Due to the fact there is very little evidence in the frequency domain of powerful cycles at larger magnitudes (aside from the 3.5 year wave, which is hard down), it is tricky to say whether that low was also a low of larger magnitude. The amplitude of the move up suggests it but we must remember that is only one half of the cycle! Let’s see how the down leg progresses now and how much power the bears have to fight back into the next trough, due late 2025/early 2026.
Trade Update
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Buy - S&P 500 (SPY) 1st April 2025
Entry: 1st April 2025 @ 560.97
Exit: 21st August 2025 @ 635.55
Gain: 13.29%