Oil: Hurst Cycles - 27th September 2022
A weak bounce from the 20 week nominal low, proposed to have occurred mid August, confirms the bearish outlook for Oil as we approach an 18 month nominal low later this year
Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend
Analysis Summary
In our last report on WTI Crude we anticipated the trough of the 20 week nominal component (@ ~18.3 weeks). The bounce failed to interact with the 20 week FLD at the initial stages, emphasising the bearish underlying trend at work in the oil market, despite geopolitical ‘macro’ news. This has been established by the phase of the 4.5 year component, which likely peaked in early 2022 and is pushing down. The long term chart below shows the trough of this longer component is due early 2024.