Natural Gas: Hurst Cycles - 24th June 2022

Natural Gas moves to an imminent 80 day nominal low having likely peaked from the 40 week cycle in early June. We look at a possible bullish rebound and likely price action over the next month or two.

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

We have been watching Natural Gas closely over the last few weeks for signs of the 40 week component peaking. In the last report we speculated on the underlying trend by the position of the price peak relative to the 40 week FLD:

After the forthcoming 40 day nominal low at the end of May we may see new highs and a general rounding top of the 40 week component. The 40 week FLD, shown on the long term chart in green, is showing a trough around late May - early June. A peak of price in the 40 week component around this area suggests a neutral underlying trend. Conversely a more right translated peak of price into June and July suggests the longer components are still influencing price in a bullish fashion from the large low in mid 2020.

Price has progressed sharply down from the peak early June to an imminent 80 day nominal low, hitting our original target of 7 and approaching the 80 day FLD cross target of 5.98. That peak is highly likely to be the peak of the 40 week component, indicating a neutral underlying trend as it is closely aligned in time with the trough of the 40 week FLD, shown on the medium term chart below.