Nifty 50 - 15th December 2023 | @ 79 Days | + 10.23%
Last trade: + 10.23% | 'B' class signal detected in India's Nifty 50. Running at an average wavelength of 79 days over 14 iterations since December 2020. Currently peaking
ΣL Cycle Summary
Outshining even the remarkable linearity of the rise in US Stock Markets is India’s NIFTY 50 index and the ubiquitous periodic component around 80 days. Rising strongly from the previous trough iteration of this component in late October / early November, price is now peaking. The next anticipated trough, at the current wavelength, is expected mid-late January 2024. Subscribers should note the high-pass filtered price series below and the touch of the upper red line. This shows a price move around 2 standard deviations of the bandpass amplitude envelope and is highly indicative of a reversal.
Trade Update
See also: Live ΣL Portfolio & History
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Buy - NIFTY 50 8th November 2023
Entry: 8th November 2023 @ 19443.50
Exit: 15th December 2023 @ 21433.50
Gain: 10.23%
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Detected Signal Class: B - learn more
Average Wavelength: 79.1 Days
Completed Iterations: 14
Component Yield Over Sample: 68.9% - learn more
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 7 Days
AM: 81.22560
Next Trough Range: 19th January - 4th February, 2024
Next Peak Range: 28th February - 12th March, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 26th January, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.