Gold: Hurst Cycles - 21st November 2022

Gold launches in late September and late October from what is at least a 20 week nominal low. Is it also the 18 month nominal trough? We look at the evidence in this report and options going forward

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Analysis Summary

Evidence is building in Gold for the case of an 18 month nominal component trough iteration at the most recent 20 week nominal low, late September. In our last report we speculated on that possibility with a noted 20 week ‘margin of error’ built into the thinking:

From 16th September Report:

At the longer term phasing it is quite possible that the 18 month component low is going to occur here, in addition to what is at least a 20 week nominal component. This is the beauty of Hurst Cycles of course, one can be uncertain about a magnitude of a trough but aligned on direction. Only amplitude will differ. It really rests on the phasing of previous 18 month component lows, notably that of November 2019 and March 2021. Whilst this is not our primary phasing, readers should be aware of this possibility, which is more likely than a far outlier,…