FTSE 100: Hurst Cycles - 10th May 2022

The FTSE made one of the more bullish moves in global equity indices from the 40 week nominal low. We look at the current retrace and imminent 80 day nominal trough

Tools required: Nominal Model | FLD | FLD Trading Strategy | FLD Trading Strategy (Advanced) | Principle of Nominality | Underlying Trend

Phasing Analysis

Long Term

Components greater than and including the 18 month nominal cycle

Medium Term

Components less than and including the 18 month nominal cycle

Short Term

Components around the 80 day nominal cycle

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Analysis Summary

In our last report on the FTSE in March we considered the bullish move from the 40 week nominal low and a peak of the 80 day component. At the time we mentioned a short for the ‘D’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD may well be slightly too early and the ‘F’ be more favourable for sellside traders:

A risk sell is presented here on a potential retrace to the 40 week FLD support around 7200-7300. Both the 10 and 20 day FLD entries are relatively flat so present similar risk:reward equations. Amplitude is very high at the 40 and 80 day components so a sharp retrace is likely. This trade is early in the 40 week cycle so traders looking for the short side may wish to wait for the 80 day nominal peak, due to come in April.