CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) - 3rd January 2024 | @ 77 Days | + 10.96%
Last trade: + 36.62% | 'A' class signal detected in CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Running at an average wavelength of 77 days over 14 iterations since February 2021. Currently peaking.
ΣL Cycle Summary
As stock markets in the US and worldwide surged in December, the VIX was subdued in the latest up leg of this excellent periodic component, around 77 days. We have seen, over recent days, some more volatile price action to the downside in stock indices and this is likely the move to the anticipated ~ 75 day component low early - mid Jan. Inverted to that wave is this component in the VIX, although the amplitude has been low, so far, as mentioned. Traders should be careful shorting here while the instrument is within the range of the peak specified below in the time frequency analysis.
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Buy - CBOE Volatility Index 1st December 2023
Entry: 1st December 2023 @ 12.63
Exit: 3rd January 2024 @ 13.96
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show high-passed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 6 Days
Next Trough Range: 8th February - 20th February, 2024
Next Peak Range: 17th March - 29th March, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 14th February, 2024
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.