Discover more from Sigma-L
ΣL Bitcoin Composite - 13th October 2023 | @ 89 Days
Last trade: + 5.37% | 'B' class signal detected in Sigma-L Bitcoin Composite (BTC vs USD/EUR/GBP). Average wavelength of 89 days over 10 iterations since June 2021. Currently peaking.
ΣL Cycle Summary
The only periodic component of real note in Bitcoin, since November 2022, has been the wave around 88 days average wavelength. Larger components have heavily diminished power over the period and this has allowed the wave detailed here to become more apparent. Indeed the lack of power at the larger waves has contributed to cryptocurrency becoming a relatively stable asset compared to some over the last 12 months! No doubt the larger components will once again exert influence in time but for now, this component is due a peak, according to the current phasing.
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous post for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Early Buy - ΣL Bitcoin Composite 21st August 2023
Entry: 21st August, 2023
Exit: 13th October, 2023
For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.
Composite Average Gain:
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Time Frequency Analysis
Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white. If a second chart is displayed it will usually show highpassed price with the extracted signal overlaid for visual clarity.
Current Signal Detail & Targets
Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).
Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 18 Days
AM: N/A (Composite)
Next Trough Range: November 7th - December 13th, 2023
Next Peak Range: December 21st, 2023 - January 26th, 2024
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 25th November, 2023
Current Signal Phase
This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.
Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)
This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.
Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)
This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.