ΣL US Stock Market Composite - 19th September 2024 | @ 79 Days
'C' class signal in Sigma-L US stock market composite (Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100). Avg. wavelength of 79 days since January 2022. Currently hard up.
ΣL Cycle Summary
This report is interesting in the fact that the 80 day nominal wave has continued to lose power to the shorter component, namely the 40 day nominal wave, through August and September, as noted in our last report. Indeed so much so that the recent price low in early September was likely the 80 day nominal low even though it did not breach the previous 40 day nominal low. The shorter component commanding price action with absolute authority it seems and providing the larger price swings. The scenario where the price low is not the cycle low does happen and illustrates why an alternative approach to simply counting all price lows/peaks as cycle lows/peaks is flawed. Although generally power is contained in a 1/f structure across the spectra of financial markets there are periods of transitory shifts in power distribution (via amplitude modulation), this being one example. It can be misleading if one can’t see where the modulation is coming from.
As is shown below, the power of the 80 day nominal wave is now heavily suppressed. This means the phase is also uncertain, rendering peak and trough date extrapolation highly variable. This uncertainty is reflected in the signal detail section. This one will be interesting to revisit in mid October.