US 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) - 30th January 2024 | @ 495 Days
'B' class signal detected in the US 10 Year Treasury Yield. Running at an average wavelength of 495 days over 9 iterations since February 2012. Currently moving down.
ΣL Cycle Summary
In this new addition to Sigma-L we sample the CBOE US 10 Year Treasury yield (TNX) since 2012 for periodic components of interest. The main detected component with correlation to price, around 500 days average wavelength, has been stable since 2016, gaining correlation and exhibiting an excellent stationarity since 2020. Prior to 2016 there was some frequency modulation, clearly shown in the time frequency plot below. We come in slightly late to the price peak, likely having occurred in October 2023 but projecting the trough around August this year. Certainly the low in 2020 was a periodic driver of larger magnitude and likely the peak in October 2023 was also a peak of this larger wave. The 500 day component is ostensibly the Hurst 18 month nominal wave and is particularly useful because the power of this wave is difficult to discern in stock markets (indeed non-existent in some), so we can indirectly infer it from this instrument, to some degree.
Current Signal Status
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.