Want to know if a market you follow has particular periodicity? Now is your chance! Make a suggestion below in the comments and we will consider examining it via our time-frequency microscope
Hi David. A couple of people who use cycle analysis and other tools note how they see the s+p holding strong to roughly summer 2024 or into 2025 after which there will be a massive selloff ( much more than 30%). Does your analysis show a massive drop in the stock markets starting in summer 2024, or perhaps in 2025, or is not possible to predict so far out using Hurst analysis? Thanks for your thoughts.
Hey Leopold, it is possible to detect and extrapolate any periodic signal using the signal processing tools we have (with a good deal of precision), given enough data points. They are likely referring to the component around 3.5 years wavelength, that is the dominant longer term signal in stockmarkets. Likely troughed in late 2022, with a peak of the cycle early 2025. That does not necessarily mean a price peak will occur at the same time...
It is interesting to see the phase of these longer but largely academic periodic components for sure.
HCL Technologies, JSW Steel, DLF, Mahindra and Mahindra, SBI, HDFC Bank, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceuticals to name a few from diffrent sectors.
Thanks Arun, will take a look. If we can get data for those forex pairs I will publish a composite to examine the underlying periodic structure (if any!).
Hello David, thank you for the opportunity for suggesting, in my case I trade on eToro and will love more FX coverage for a swing trading strategy looking for 3-10 days acceleration processes. I would say that the 20 day nominal cycle is the one I trade. I cover 25 major Fx but I suppose it is a high load of work so beginning with major one could be great!! Thank you so much, José
Hey Jose, absolutely a pleasure. Whilst we cover major FX pairs around the 80 day 'nominal' component I have yet to post much shorter term. I will possibly take a look at the major $ pairs for anything significant today.
In the meantime below are some of the most recent posts covering forex pairs (as composites):
David, one more if you don't mind shorter and longer term. The lumber ETF WOOD ( global timber and forestry etf) on US exchange (Nasdaq). I am wondering if it is time to go long lumber stocks -Thanks.
Hi, can you please consider the base metal nickel , roughly 78 days and 148 days if possible. I am interested in nickel mining stocks but I can only find one nickel miner ETF in the US but it only started in 2023.
As you say Leopold, there is not much data or instruments to garner here for purely nickel. However, exposure to nickel (and other base metals) is possible through some of the mining ETFs, most notably PICK and XME. Both of which feature a superb periodic component around 78 days.
Hi David. I would like to share these tickers I found having very interesting cyclic behavior: TENCENT (HKEX, this one has a rich spectrum, ~300 days seem to be most prominent), BABA(NYSE), NIO(NYSE), MEITUAN(HKEX, mainly ~120 days), BILI(NASDAQ, mainly ~120 days), PEP(NYSE), 600519(SSE), 300750(SZSE)
Hi David. A couple of people who use cycle analysis and other tools note how they see the s+p holding strong to roughly summer 2024 or into 2025 after which there will be a massive selloff ( much more than 30%). Does your analysis show a massive drop in the stock markets starting in summer 2024, or perhaps in 2025, or is not possible to predict so far out using Hurst analysis? Thanks for your thoughts.
Hey Leopold, it is possible to detect and extrapolate any periodic signal using the signal processing tools we have (with a good deal of precision), given enough data points. They are likely referring to the component around 3.5 years wavelength, that is the dominant longer term signal in stockmarkets. Likely troughed in late 2022, with a peak of the cycle early 2025. That does not necessarily mean a price peak will occur at the same time...
It is interesting to see the phase of these longer but largely academic periodic components for sure.
I have posted time frequency charts on a twitter post below for US markets and this component, I hope that is helpful: https://twitter.com/TradingHurst/status/1681396205132079105
Hi david would appreciate if you could look at Indian Markets. Indicies like, NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, FINNIFTY
Indian Forex pair, we only have four, USDINR, EURINR, JPYINR,GBPINR
I would also like to add more stocks here but I dont wanna crowd it up in here. Perhaps a few bluechips?
Which bluechips would you suggest?
HCL Technologies, JSW Steel, DLF, Mahindra and Mahindra, SBI, HDFC Bank, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceuticals to name a few from diffrent sectors.
Although we can't get the full data for a composite, a scan of USDINR reveals an excellent component circa 75 days:
https://www.sigma-l.net/p/usdinr-14th-july-2023-75-days-market-cycles
Thanks Arun, will take a look. If we can get data for those forex pairs I will publish a composite to examine the underlying periodic structure (if any!).
Hello David, thank you for the opportunity for suggesting, in my case I trade on eToro and will love more FX coverage for a swing trading strategy looking for 3-10 days acceleration processes. I would say that the 20 day nominal cycle is the one I trade. I cover 25 major Fx but I suppose it is a high load of work so beginning with major one could be great!! Thank you so much, José
Hey Jose, absolutely a pleasure. Whilst we cover major FX pairs around the 80 day 'nominal' component I have yet to post much shorter term. I will possibly take a look at the major $ pairs for anything significant today.
In the meantime below are some of the most recent posts covering forex pairs (as composites):
CAD: https://www.sigma-l.net/p/cad-composite-10th-july-2023-76-day-cycle
USD: https://www.sigma-l.net/p/us-dollar-composite-10th-july-2023-cycles
EUR: https://www.sigma-l.net/p/eur-composite-30th-may-2023-139-day-cycle
Individual highlights can also be found, such as the wonderful USDCAD:
https://www.sigma-l.net/p/usdcad-3rd-july-2023-78-days-market-cycles
That sound great... Thks again!
David, one more if you don't mind shorter and longer term. The lumber ETF WOOD ( global timber and forestry etf) on US exchange (Nasdaq). I am wondering if it is time to go long lumber stocks -Thanks.
Certainly will take a look, thank you
Hi, can you please consider the base metal nickel , roughly 78 days and 148 days if possible. I am interested in nickel mining stocks but I can only find one nickel miner ETF in the US but it only started in 2023.
Thanks.
As you say Leopold, there is not much data or instruments to garner here for purely nickel. However, exposure to nickel (and other base metals) is possible through some of the mining ETFs, most notably PICK and XME. Both of which feature a superb periodic component around 78 days.
https://www.sigma-l.net/p/ishares-pick-metals-mining-13th-july-cycles
https://www.sigma-l.net/p/spdr-xme-metals-mining-12th-july-market-cycles
Thanks for that, David.
Looks like your GDX trough call came in pretty much right on que, hopefully we get some nice upside now in gold ( and silver) miners.
Thanks Leopold, will take a look.
HI Dave - perhaps you can look at the Aussie Market ( XJO ) is the Aussie 200 index
Alternatively perhaps a commodity like Wheat which I think is making a lasting low?
Thanks x
Many thanks Cindy, will consider these and post if there are signals of interest.
Hi David. I would like to share these tickers I found having very interesting cyclic behavior: TENCENT (HKEX, this one has a rich spectrum, ~300 days seem to be most prominent), BABA(NYSE), NIO(NYSE), MEITUAN(HKEX, mainly ~120 days), BILI(NASDAQ, mainly ~120 days), PEP(NYSE), 600519(SSE), 300750(SZSE)
Many thanks Cjin, I will take a look.