S&P 500: Hurst Cycles - 29th July 2022

A higher price low for the most recent 40 day nominal component low is likely the 20 week nominal low. In this report we line up the upcoming short trade and longer term outlook

Analysis Summary

The S&P 500 likely made a low of at least 20 week magnitude around the 14th of July, a higher price low but in commonality with other equity indices worldwide that made lower price lows. In our last report we mentioned that the 80 day downward VTL would be a marker for confirming the 20 week nominal low.

From 30th June Report:

At the medium term and in commonality with other US markets we can now draw the downward 80 day VTL (blue on long term and medium term charts) as a useful guide going forward. A median price breach of this VTL by price will imply a 20 week low has occurred and, as such, will be useful to confirm the 20 week nominal low if it is to come in mid July or before

That low has now been confirmed, as shown below at both the medium and long term charts.