Headline Numbers
Closed trades as of 1st December 2021 across all markets
Nominal Gain: 170.65%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 155.61%
The first quarter for the new Sigma-L site was dominated by cryptocurrency in the main. Although there were excellent trades across forex (5.82% / 24.65%) and in the stockmarket indices (4.06% / 7.87%) the supreme periodic price action in the crypto market, combined with the relatively large % gains available, skews the results, even when normalising for a 3 year range of price action. No sector made a loss.
It is worth mentioning that as this report is the very first of it’s kind we have very few trades to include in some sectors as a result. The quantity of trades is related to the confidence of our analysis in the periodic components in markets and is also related to the timeframe we choose for targets. For example there is an excellent ongoing short trade in Natural Gas which will be accounted for in the next report.
Sector Breakdown
Cryptocurrency
Nominal Gain: 153.55%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 110.52%
Offering tremendous returns and periodicity akin to a swiss clock, the cryptocurrency market analysed with Hurst Cycles massively outperformed this quarter. The best performance came from Ethereum (54.16% / 46.03%) and reflects the need to examine amplitude modulation in markets with commonality for the best yields over time. Undoubtably skilled analysts can take the principles outlined on this site for amplitude modulation in the sector and achieve even higher gains given appropriate crypto selection.
Energy
Nominal Gain: 7.81%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 10.4%
Very few trades were executed in the energy market this quarter, reflecting the uncertainty around the 18 month nominal low placement and the longer term targets applied. Natural Gas aswell as Oil look a very good prospect for 2022 and we may add Brent Crude into the analysis at some point to enhance commonality.
Forex
Nominal Gain: 4.84%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 24.65%
A fair quarter for the forex market with some excellent long opportunities dominating. The dollar has been bullish and we expect that to continue into the early months of 2022. We had the opportunity to take advantage of moves from good lows in USDCAD (3.47% / 16.54%) and AUDNZD (1.66% / 8.53%). These kind of medium term ‘swing trades’ are generally excellent for Hurstonians as we can take advantage of the precision at the smaller degree and the targets at the higher degree.
We took small losses on AUDUSD (-0.97% / -2.7%).
With the addition of the Dollar Index recently and plans to add more pairs to this sector in 2022 we expect forex to become a larger part of the portfolio going forward.
Precious Metals
Nominal Gain: 0.39%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 2.17%
The worst performer amongst the sectors was in the precious metals as some fundamental interaction around the 18 month nominal low muddied the waters, prompting a patient approach and only 2 executed trades this quarter. The larger degree components are solid in Gold and Silver and we have recently seen a return to a visually apparent 80 day component. We expect much better returns in 2022 for the traditional inflation hedge.
Stockmarkets
Nominal Gain: 4.06%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 7.87%
A fair quarter in the stockmarket indices with a few trades executed across the FTSE and S&P500. The attenuating effects of the 9 year low bullishness that occurred in 2020 are still being felt in the markets but are waning as we approach the midpoint of the 54 month component. The addition of the DJIA will provide another angle of commonality into 2022 and we may also add the Russell 2000 at some point, given it’s outstanding periodicity at the shorter timeframe components.
Summary
We hope this quarterly report provides some level of transparency and insight into the effectiveness of Hurst Cycles at a hypothetical level, with the knowledge that it is the very early days of this site. We have many more opportunities to look forward to in 2022, not least the move into the 40 week low of both stockmarkets and cryptocurrency. Of course we will also be adding more educational articles on the application of Hurst Cycles, alongside the market analysis, so watch out for that!
Finally, we would like to say thank you to all subscribers for your continued support and we wish you all a fantastic holiday period.