Quarterly Performance Report
Quarterly Performance Report
Portfolio Report | December 2021 - February 2022
Headline Numbers and Summary
Closed trades as of 6th March 2022 across all markets
This Quarter: Nominal Gain: 104.39% | 3 Year Normalised: 158.52%
Year to date: Nominal Gain: 275.04% | 3 Year Normalised: 314.13%
Our second quarter at Sigma-L provided a similar level of performance to the first with energy outperforming in this instance. This was most apparent in natural gas which displays outstanding periodicity combined with large relative yields.
Stockmarkets and precious metals performed well, both exploding with amplitude recently whilst maintaining excellent component stability in terms of frequency. Stockmarkets in particular have been displaying outstanding periodicity at the 80 day and 20 week component. The recent bearish move in the FTSE was of note due to the high yield.
Forex results were improved upon the last quarter. We took moderate losses in cryptocurrency, mainly due to ambiguity around the 20 week component in November 2021.
Read on for a detailed breakdown of each market sector.
Sector Breakdown
Energy
Nominal Gain: 65.05%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 60.6%
Nominal Gain (Year to Date): 72.86%
The short into the 18 month nominal low in Natural Gas, which was mentioned in the last performance report and to be updated here, yielded a 25% gain alone. A similar powerful bullish move in early 2022, from the (likely) 18 month nominal low itself, yielded a similar gain in nominal terms. This was offset to a small degree by WTI Crude, which made losses recently due to the large attenuation of the smaller cyclic components by geopolitical events. We expect clarity to return to oil, which is evidently periodic at the longer term and shares commonality with equity indices, soon.
Precious Metals
Nominal Gain: 25.38%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 32.62%
Nominal Gain (Year to Date): 25.77%
After a disappointing first quarter in the precious metals both Silver and Gold roared back to outperform this quarter, being our second biggest nominal gain. A period of generally sideways consolidation throughout 2021 was evident prior to the most recent 20 week nominal low in late November 2021. Price action from that cycle low has been the subject of amplitude modulation due to geopolitical events, causing the exponential rise we see in the last few weeks and extending price to our targets.
It is worth noting that both the most popular precious metals are exhibiting exemplary peak phase synchronisation to price, suggesting a nominal 40 week crest is fairly imminent.
Uranium is one to watch over the coming months as a 40 week nominal low is anticipated in the current quarter. This instrument experienced a large cycle low (9 year nominal at least) in early 2020.
Stockmarkets
Nominal Gain: 23.71%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 49.84%
Nominal Gain (Year to Date): 27.77%
Stockmarkets have really come alive in this quarter. The largely attenuated move from the 9 year low in 2020 has given way to excellent clarity of the smaller components. This is generally always the case when the larger underlying trend in effect ‘flatlines’, effectively neutralising any influence, resulting in a ‘rolling top’ effect. Most notable are the 80 day and 20 week components. The DJIA and S&P 500 are yet to exhibit the same very bearish amplitude as their European counterparts but share broadly the same periodic components in terms of frequency/wavelength.
Equity markets have a rollercoaster ride to come in the next few years as the larger bull market wanes. European markets are notably bearish but shorter term bullish opportunities will, as always, present themselves. We expect the low of the 18 month nominal component toward the very end of 2022 so the next move up from the imminent 40 week nominal low will be fascinating.
Cryptocurrency
Nominal Gain: -15.85%
3 Year Normalised Gain: -13.96%
Nominal Gain (Year to Date): 137.7%
After a hugely successful first quarter in cryptocurrency we experienced a moderate loss of -15.85% this quarter. This was, in the main, due to the ambiguous nature of the 20 week nominal low during November 2021 and the subsequent ambiguity at the smaller components.
The most recent 80 day nominal low in late January has once again re-established clarity as we approach what is phased as the 40 week nominal low toward the end of March. There were good short trades enacted in Bitcoin, Ethereum respectively once ambiguity was resolved and this offset losses to an extent.
Many have written off cryptocurrency as the traditional hedges of gold and silver dominate. Expect that to change once again in the coming months.
Forex
Nominal Gain: 6.1%
3 Year Normalised Gain: 29.42%
Nominal Gain (Year to Date): 10.94%
Another fair quarter for our currency pairs. Of particular note has been the AUDNZD and USDCAD, both displaying very good periodicity. The former likely approaching a peak of 40 week magnitude relatively soon. The Dollar Index has been subject to increased amplitude at the 40 day component but is in the process of peaking from the 18 month cycle. This is one to watch over the coming months.
Summary
The quarter has been fascinating. We have seen acceleration in the fall of cryptocurrency and the rise of precious metals. The explosion in commodities and energy from large cycle lows and increased amplitude around the USD.
The decline of stockmarkets hint at the beginning of a more volatile period in global markets as we begin to see the nature of the 9 year component, established in 2020. This is excellent news for Hurstonian traders as generally more volatility (amplitude) results in greater clarity of periodic components.
Thank you to all subscribers once again for your support.