ΣL Bitcoin Composite - 19th February 2024 | @ 86 Days | - 23.41%
Last trade: - 23.41% | 'C' class signal detected in Sigma-L Bitcoin Composite (BTC vs USD/EUR/GBP). Average wavelength of 86 days over 12 iterations since April 2021. Currently hard up
ΣL Cycle Summary
Establishing the timing on this noisy component within Bitcoin has proved tricky once again. In general the spectra across cryptocurrency is relatively noisy, with the component around 160 days being another that is coherent in the past but has been recently modulated, making the phase (and therefore turns in price) difficult to estimate with precision. That component, alongside this shorter wave, likely troughed at the end of January, both are shown below. With respect to the shorter wave, the trough occurred quite early, reflecting the general frequency modulation that has grown recently and continues to provide uncertainty compared to other much more periodic instruments on Sigma-L. Within any kind of cyclical analysis the signal to noise ratio must be high to avoid being fooled by randomness, a trait often seen with more traditional technical analysis. This is also one of the reasons we generally strive to sample at least 8 iterations of any periodic component detected - never trust an analysis with only 2 or 3 samples of a periodic feature! In the current case the modulation is such that phase is uncertain beyond acceptable precision, but it does happen. Signal downgraded to a ‘C’ category until we see some power and stability established once again.
Trade Update
See also: Live ΣL Portfolio & History
Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.
Type: Late Sell - ΣL Bitcoin Composite 26th January 2024
Entry: 26th January, 2024
Exit: 19th February, 2024
For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.
Constituent Gain:
BTCUSD (-22.89%)
BTCGBP (-23.66%)
BTCEUR (-23.69%)
Composite Average Gain:
-23.41%
Before and After
Signal comparison between our last report and the current time, in chart format.