ΣL Cycle Summary

In this sample of Gold (XAUUSD) over the last 12 years we reveal a periodic feature that has been present throughout, exhibiting excellent spectral spacing within a bandwidth spanning ~ 1000 to 100 days. Sporting a wavelength around 500 days (or 16 months) this feature has maintained it’s power even through the tremendous and linear uptrend since early 2024. The phase is currently peaking with the next trough due late 2026. Indeed this feature is also clearly present in PHYS and GDX (shown below via composite), something that may be obvious but is not always the case at the shorter wavelengths.

The highpass filtered series below also reveals the spectacular amplitude increase passed through to the cycle around 500 days from underlying trend. A breach of the red standard deviation line is a high probability reversal signal and indicative of a peak for this wave.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Arguments constantly seem to rage over which is the better investment, Gold or Silver, in the investment zeitgeist. The truth, at least from a cycles point of view, is that one should pay very close attention to a remarkable periodic feature of around 260 days in order to switch between the two!

In the below sample the cycle in question is shown clearly over a 10 year period. Featuring 13 + iterations and with no significant power in neighbouring frequencies (or indeed anywhere in the bandwidth), this cycle is an example of highly stationary, non random price action. Silver has recently had one of it’s best runs of the last decade, a run which is now ending, or at least until the start of March 2026, according to the current phasing (see details below). Gold and silver bugs should always keep this extraordinary feature in mind.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Macro news characterised this particular down-leg in the cycle highlighted here, a tremendous periodic feature across copper and related derivatives. The ‘tariff’ spike came after the peak of the cycle and is detected as a transitory higher frequency feature in the time-frequency results, below. The larger component, described in this report, continues to beat away with stationary power and is running at around 150-160 days average wavelength. The price and cycle trough has likely passed a few weeks ago so this will be a late buy as the phase is hard up at the time of writing. Regardless, there is a significant portion of time until the next peak, due early-mid August this year. Keen and long term readers will note the almost complete attenuation of the previously excellent cycle around 80 days as the larger component dominates price action. For a sample of that feature check out a report from 2 years ago as a matter of interest!

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Copper 26th March 2025
Entry: 26th March 2025 @ 5.221
Exit: 16th June 2025 @ 4.873
Gain: + 6.67%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This sublime cycle in copper (XG/USD) is a signal that we have had our eye on for some time, awaiting the now imminent peak. It is also ubiquitous in other metals, such as uranium, aluminium and steel. Running at around 155 days average wavelength in our sample over the last ~ 4 years, it is well spectrally separated and exhibits exquisite stationarity, worthy of an ‘A’ class rating in our system. There is little more to add aside from to say this component is currently peaking, more details are given below in the signal targets section.

Time Frequency Analysis

Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white.

High-Pass Filtered Price

Our high-pass filter isolates the component of interest from underlying trend and presents buy and sell threshold envelopes (green and red). The envelopes are based upon the amplitude envelope of the bandpass filter +- 2 standard deviations. Breaches of either by high-passed price is a strong reversal action signal.

Current Signal Detail & Targets

Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).

Detected Signal Class: A - learn more
Average Wavelength: 155.56 Days (~ 22 Weeks)
Completed Iterations: 8
Component Yield Over Sample: 131.58% - learn more

Phase: Peaking
FM: +- 4 Days
AM: 0.10607

Next Trough Range: 10th - 18th June, 2025
Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 14th June, 2025

Current Signal Phase

This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.

Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)

This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.

Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)

This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.

DISCLAIMER: This website/newsletter and the charts/projections contained within it are intended for educational purposes only. Results and projections are hypothetical. We accept no liability for any losses incurred as a result of assertions made due to the information contained within Sigma-L. This report is not intended to instruct investment or purchase of any financial instrument, derivative or asset connected to the information conveyed in the report. Trade and invest at your own risk.

ΣL Cycle Summary

It has been a fairly flat to bullish iteration in the latest ‘down leg’ of this prominent cycle in XAUXAG, leaving the upcoming trough as a very bullish option on the evidence presented in the phasing analysis. When smaller components are ‘bent’ upwards in this manner it usually implies a larger component is within it’s most bullish phase of influence. Indeed this iteration may well turn out to resemble a similar setup to that of June 2021 - March 2022, a bullish shaped cycle. Of course ultra bulls will hope that this bullish evidence means a similar amplitude increase to that of late 2019 and 2020!

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

A serene and relatively low amplitude move from the low in late December typified the past couple of months in Platinum as price continued to drift sideways in the larger picture. This cycle, running at around 135 days wavelength on average, is defining the undulations within the drift and has been coherent for a few years now. Phased as currently peaking, we expect the next low of this cycle due in late April/early May.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Platinum 27th December 2025
Entry: 27th December 2025 @ 923.53
Exit: 27th February 2025 @ 971.71
Gain: 5.22%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This exceptional cycle, which dominates the spectra below 200 days within our steel proxy, SLX, continues to provide profitable opportunities and is stable at a wavelength of around 160 days. This time the trade to the downside featured an increase in amplitude, boosting yield from the most recent peak, formed in November 2024. The phasing now suggests a trough of this component is due. The report is a little early so be mindful of the margin of error in the signal details and targets below.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) 11th November 2024
Entry: 11th November 2024 @ 71.82
Exit: 16th January 2025 @ 60.32
Gain: 16.01%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Overall, uranium bulls can be fairly happy with the down-leg of this hugely profitable cycle, at around 150-160 days wavelength. Although within individual instruments the retrace has varied in severity, across the sector as a whole and reflected in our composite price has moved to around 50% of the previous up-leg. We are now within the troughing zone for the latest low of this component. A move back and beyond the peaks of November within the first month of the up leg will be a bullish sign for the prospect of further highs. A sideways price action structure within the up-leg (failing to breach the November highs quickly) will start to suggest any significant upside is delayed until mid 2024 and the next trough of this wave.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Sell - ΣL Uranium Composite 28th October 2024
Entry: 28th October 2024
Exit: 13th January 2024

For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.

Constituent Gain:
UUUU (21.64%)
DNN (15.27%)
UEC (14.36%)
CCJ (13.51%)
NXE (12.77%)

Composite Average Gain:
15.51 %

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This component, the same as the cycle highlighted in XAUEUR, is a fairly recently stabilised feature of Gold against these three major fiat currencies. Modulation is apparent in some parts of the signal here but it is relatively stable and certainly the most powerful feature at wavelengths below 75 days. Recent iterations have been less bullish than the period July to November 2024, perhaps reflecting some more bearish influence from the longer term wave around 16 months. The issue with Gold in a larger context is that currently, around wavelengths of 100-500 days, the spectra is quite noisy indeed, with heavy modulation across a wide bandwidth of frequencies. This is not ideal for speculation on price (via timing with cycles!). However, this will not last forever and when a new component is stable, we will feature it on Sigma-L.

Long time subscribers will remember with fondness the beautiful feature around 55 days which persisted for 3 years (over 20+ iterations) and then vanished. Such is the nature of financial market cycles. Fortunately when a cycle emerges it tends to persist for at least 6-8 iterations, in our experience. Early detection is key.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This is a cycle we have observed for some time; now is the time to publish some detail for the coming months as a trough beckons. A wave around 150-160 days average wavelength defines the movement within the underlying trend, in addition to the shorter wavelength around 75-80 days, which is not as powerful (but still very profitable). Indeed this metal exhibits much the same spectral properties as Uranium, which itself is near to a trough of the component at 150 days average wavelength. Clearly these two metals share commonality when it comes to dominant cycles within their price movement.

The instruments which comprise the composite here (ALB, PLL, LAC, SQM, LIT, LITP, BATT, REMX) have similar levels of volatility, making for a consistent phasing across the sector.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

New for 2025 is this excellent, long term feature in Lithium Futures (LC). Very well spectrally separated with mild variance in frequency over the sample of 10 iterations since 2017, this is an archetypal ‘A’ class signal, in our opinion. This market currently looks to be peaking from the latest iteration high, with the next trough due mid 2025 (detail below). An explosion in amplitude, similar to the aftermath of the trough in May 2021 when price went to around 50, will certainly be on the new year ‘wishlist’ for Lithium bulls, at that point.

One to watch for all metal/commodity traders and investors.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

A serene move down in Platinum from late October and into late December confirms this wave, at around 137 days average wavelength, is still dominating the larger, underlying sideways price action. The overall shape of the cycle is neutral so bulls should be cautious for the next leg up, due to peak late February next year, as detailed below.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Platinum 21st October 2024
Entry: 21st October 2024 @ 1007.90
Exit: 27th December 2024 @ 938.55
Gain: 6.88%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This excellent cycle, sampled from 5000 hourly data points in XAUEUR is notionally the 40 day nominal wave using classical Hurst nomenclature. Running at around 788 hours (or 32 calendar days) it should be classed as the 40 day component when referring the original nominal model. For our purposes the nomination is not especially relevant but we can see this wave is highly stationary and likely recently troughed or is very near to troughing. The recent sharp up move in price suggests the former. We show both the hourly analysis and a lower resolution from the daily (with a longer time sample) to establish the dominance of this wave, below a wavelength of around 50 days.

A sample of XAUUSD, also shown below, reveals the same component (as may be expected) with a little more frequency modulation. Using both XAUUSD and XAUEUR as a composite retains the coherent part of the signal and is the optimal way to view this component.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Such was the meteoric rise from the last low of this component (at the start of this year) that we have held off speculating on a peak until now. This cycle, running around 450-500 days average wavelength over the sample, really emerged as a dominant factor around 2013-2014. Price has been drawn into it’s influence over the subsequent years to the current point where we now observe a likely peak in the phase. Prior to that there were two competing components flanking this signal (around 400 and 600 days average wavelength), making the phase uncertain (see chart below).

Amplitude has increased slowly since 2016 and the last iteration looks to be the most powerful so far. Bulls will hope that this power is not maintained to the downside over coming months (meaning a full retrace to the last trough) and larger components (with more power) are still pushing up. This additional bullish power would then support a higher low, due mid 2025 according to the signal detail below. A similar scenario was seen from August 2011 to May 2012 with a consolation move, although that in itself preceded a larger move down.

If you have an interest in Gold this is definitely a cycle to be aware of going into 2025.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This exemplary, stationary wave, similar to the ~ 150 day component in Copper that we recently published, has punctuated the underlying trend in our steel proxy, SLX, for many years now. Currently phased as peaking with the next incoming low due early February 2025. One to definitely track next year for exposure to this common metal/commodity.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Once again the longer cycle in a dynamic duo of stationary signals for Copper has delivered a decent leg (~ 80 days / ~ 150 days). Being not nearly as high in power as the iteration starting from February this year, this particular installment has still moved up with a similar amount of enthusiasm as the average cycle for this wavelength. Although slightly late to update this wave due to the US election, we have a potential peak in place, likely having occurred late October. Price is due the next trough in early to mid January at the current wavelength so there should be plenty more downside if the underlying trend is also down.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Copper (HG) 19th August 2024
Entry: 19th August 2024 @ 4.1665
Exit: 7th November 2024 @ 4.4100
Gain: 5.84%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Amplitude and yield returned to this component in our lithium sector composite over the last up leg. Patient bulls had waited several subdued iterations for some power to return so it was a welcome chapter for them. Frequency has remained stationary throughout and there is no reason to believe it will change given the evidence infront of us. The component is now peaking with the next trough due later this month. Within the composite Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) and Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC) heavily outperformed this time.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Lithium Composite 19th September 2024
Entry: 19th September 2024
Exit: 4th November, 2024

For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.

Constituent Gain:
PLL (86.61%)
LAC (86.44%)
REMX (25.78%)
LITP (23.84%)
ILIT (21.37%)
LIT (18.77%)
ALB (16.64%)
BATT (9.09%)
SQM (7.54%)

Composite Average Gain:
32.90 %

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

This excellent wave, stationary since 2020 and yielding large profits over the period over 10 iterations in our sample, shot up from the most recent trough in early August. Indeed the latest move up was the largest yielding up leg in our sample and also the largest since we began covering Uranium, some years ago. Across the composite amplitudes differ somewhat, with the more volatile UEC yielding over 40% from the latest up leg whilst a more modest, but still excellent, yield of over 17% came from UUUU during our latest trade period. This component is now due a peak and, given the dominance of this cycle, should be a signal that subscribers will heed. The more bullish scenario into late January will be a largely flat retrace, suggesting a larger component is still pushing up across the sector.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Buy - ΣL Uranium Composite 30th July 2024
Entry: 30th July, 2024
Exit: 28th October, 2024

For a composite analysis, each constituent’s respective gain over the period is displayed, in descending order. The average of the constituent gain is also shown.

Constituent Gain:
UEC (44.73%)
CCJ (25.89%)
DNN (22.53%)
NXE (19.97%)
UUUU (17.17%)

Composite Average Gain:
26.06 %

Time Frequency Analysis

Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white.

Before and After

Signal comparison between our last report and the current time, in chart format.

Current Signal Detail & Targets

Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).

Detected Signal Class: B - learn more
Average Wavelength: 156.64 Days
Completed Iterations: 10

Phase: Peaking
FM: +- 21 Days
Next Trough Range: 17th January - 6th February, 2025
Next Peak Range: 5th - 25th April, 2025

Sigma-L Recommendation: Early Sell
Time Target: ~ 27th January, 2025

Current Signal Phase

This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.

Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)

This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.

Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)

This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.

DISCLAIMER: This website/newsletter and the charts/projections contained within it are intended for educational purposes only. Results and projections are hypothetical. We accept no liability for any losses incurred as a result of assertions made due to the information contained within Sigma-L. This report is not intended to instruct investment or purchase of any financial instrument, derivative or asset connected to the information conveyed in the report. Trade and invest at your own risk.

ΣL Cycle Summary

This now more stationary component, upgraded to a ‘B’ class signal, moved up as anticipated during September and is now peaking. The cycle isolated here punctuates an underlying trend that is largely sideways for several years. Bulls will be hoping for a shallower move down into late December, followed by more upside to maintain the larger, ranging structure.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Platinum 6th October, 2024
Entry: 6th August 2024 @ 914.85
Exit: 21st October 2024 @ 1019.95
Gain: 11.49%

Time Frequency Analysis

Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white.

Before and After

Signal comparison between our last report and the current time, in chart format.

High-Pass Filtered Price

Our high-pass filter isolates the component of interest from underlying trend and presents buy and sell threshold envelopes (green and red). The envelopes are based upon the amplitude envelope of the bandpass filter +- 2 standard deviations. Breaches of either by high-passed price is a strong reversal action signal.

Current Signal Detail & Targets

Here we give more detail on the signal relative to speculative price, given the detected attributes of the component. In most cases the time target to hold a trade for is more important, given we focus on cycles in financial markets. Forthcoming trough and peak ranges are based upon the frequency modulation in the sample (learn more).

Detected Signal Class: B - learn more
Average Wavelength: 137.33 Days
Completed Iterations: 11
Component Yield Over Sample: 173.55% - learn more

Phase: Peaking / Peaked
FM: +- 10 Days
AM: 10.02125
Next Trough Range: 22nd December, 2024 - 2nd January, 2025
Next Peak Range: 1st - 10th March, 2025

Sigma-L Recommendation: Sell
Time Target: ~ 27th December, 2024

Current Signal Phase

This is ‘how far along’ the cycle is in it’s period at now time and is related to the predicted price action direction.

Current Signal Frequency Modulation (FM)

This is how much, on average, the signal detected varies in frequency (or wavelength) over the whole sample. A lower variance is better and implies better profitability for the component. Frequency usually modulates relatively slowly and over several iterations.

Current Signal Amplitude Modulation (AM)

This is how much the component gains or loses power (price influence) across the sample, on average. Amplitude modulation can happen quite quickly and certainly is more evident than frequency modulation in financial markets. The more stable the modulation the better.

DISCLAIMER: This website/newsletter and the charts/projections contained within it are intended for educational purposes only. Results and projections are hypothetical. We accept no liability for any losses incurred as a result of assertions made due to the information contained within Sigma-L. This report is not intended to instruct investment or purchase of any financial instrument, derivative or asset connected to the information conveyed in the report. Trade and invest at your own risk.

ΣL Cycle Summary

This excellent cycle, featured previously on Sigma-L and defining the relationship between the two big precious metals of interest, is superb. Stationary for many years and even more notably so over the last couple of years. We see only a very slight lengthening of the wavelength since 2020 which is, on average, around 260 days - sampled since 2015 below. Currently phased as peaking/peaked, which implies silver should outperform gold by yield over time until around February 2025, the extrapolated time zone for the next trough.

Time Frequency Analysis

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