ΣL Cycle Summary

After the Easter break we return to Bitcoin and what has been a subdued up leg of the lovely 80 day cycle during March. This has been somewhat surprising given the 40 week feature is also now powering up but there are some analogies in the past for this in Bitcoin, notably mid 2024. Amplitude of a cycle (or the volatility / price move amount per leg) is much harder to predict than timing, although we can possibly infer price moves nearer nowtime from the most recent leg. Focusing on what we do know about a financial market’s spectra is optimal (frequency tends to modulates slowly), let price take care of itself, so to speak.

Bulls will be hoping now the sideways price action continues or begins to shape mildly upward, indicating the 40 week is supporting with increased power as the 80 day pushes down simultaneously.

Mid May is the next inflection point (trough) for the 80 day cycle and if price does indeed remain sideways we could see an explosive move up at that point. This would take us just past mid 2026, as the two main periodic features align in phase once more.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Bitcoin 18th February 2026
Entry: 18th February 2026 @ 66419.79
Exit: 7th April 2026 @ 68650.37
Gain: 3.36%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Those who followed the time prediction from the January update will be well satisfied — the crunchpoint flagged for mid to late February has arrived precisely on cue, with the 80 day cycle now in its trough phase and Bitcoin having shed a substantial ~25% from the peak near $90,000. The confluence of the 80 day and the larger 280 day cycle exerting their combined downside influence has played out much as anticipated, and the short trade closed out with an excellent result.

The trough is now upon us, with the frequency modulation running at +/- 5 days from the current position — a relatively tight window that lends reasonable confidence to the timing. With 17 completed iterations since June 2022 at an average wavelength of 83 days, this remains one of the more dependable cyclical features in the cryptocurrency space, and the upgraded ‘A’ class signal classification reflects that robustness. The cumulative component yield over the sample period stands at an impressive 387.71%, a testament to the consistency of this feature over time.

Looking ahead, the next peak range is projected between the 30th March and 8th April 2026, with the central time target falling around the 3rd of April. Bulls will note that this gives a window of approximately six weeks for the up leg to develop — and with the powerful 280 day cycle now set to shift from headwind to tailwind, the conditions for a more meaningful advance are considerably more favourable than they were entering the January trough.

Charts below show a variety of phasings over and above the ~ 80 day feature. Included are some screenshots of our new MT5 EA, due to be released soon. For the latest update on that please take a look at the article here.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Bitcoin 10th January 2026
Entry: 10th January 2026 @ 90385.54
Exit: 18th February 2026 @ 67349.26
Gain: 25.49%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Happy new year to all!

In this much anticipated update we take a look, once again, at one of the few markets providing cyclical dominance at the moment, the ubiquitous 80 day cycle in Bitcoin and the wider spectra going forwards.

The up leg from late November was a damp squib of a move, suggesting the now more apparent ~ 280 day cycle (shown below) is still exerting downside influence. This much larger wave is considerably more powerful than the 80 day feature, such is the nature of power distribution in financial markets. Over the course of the last few years it has featured a rather wide and therefore unpredictable, practically speaking, modulation. For that reason it has not featured on Sigma-L before although I have mentioned it briefly on X. That modulation has diminished somewhat recently and even more so when the addition of other liquid cryptocurrencies is analysed in a composite, also shown below.

The crunchpoint appears to be ahead of us in mid - late February with troughs of the 80 day and 280 day broadly aligning in phase. That said, the modulation is still quite wide in the larger feature so it may well be a case of sideways until then, which is even better for bulls. The 30 day carries on regardless, making excellent undulations at the lower resolution and is easily discerned by our time frequency method, see below. Useful for traders with a shorter time horizon I have no doubt.

In summary, not long to wait for the more bullish crypto enthusiasts with the powerful 280 day cycle set to provide an excellent guide in 2026. Alongside that the 80 day looks to be maintaining it’s power, providing even more granularity to the swings.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Buy - Bitcoin 17th November 2025
Entry: 17th November 2025 @ 92100.60
Exit: 10th December 2025 @ 90646.30
Gain: - 1.58%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Much gnashing of teeth and surprised sentiment has been doing the rounds on X recently in the crypto space, many caught unaware by the powerful nature of the 80 day cycle in this recent downturn.

So, we return to this feature, slightly early, to update the phase and look to the next stage. The other cycle of interest in Bitcoin below 100 days is the ~ 30 day cycle, which is currently troughing. This is the reason, mainly, for the earlier update in the 80 day cycle phase as we may see yet another battle here between these two.

The two main cyclic components are out of phase and have been for many months, producing consolidations prior to syncing and exploding in the prevailing direction. This was seen recently in the mid phase of the bearish 80 day leg and entire bearish leg of the 30 day. Whilst the cycle low of the 80 day feature (currently late down) is due toward the back end of November/early December, there may be enough power in the 30 day to produce sideways price action prior to the larger degree low. Charts below display both components in detail.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Bitcoin 22nd October 2025
Entry: 22nd October 2025 @ 107585.98
Exit: 17th November 2025 @ 94002.67
Gain: 12.63%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Whilst the superb 30 day cycle has been ‘making all the headlines’ in Bitcoin for it’s wonderful correlation to price action over the last 6 months, the 80 day feature bubbles under the surface. In the latest iteration of the up leg during late September and October price has moved largely sideways, battling with the aforementioned little brother for correlation. It is also interesting to note the power around 60 days, likely a harmonic (see chart below), picked up by the time frequency analysis in response to the relatively high amplitude of the 30 day. The fact that the 80 day is not harmonically related (at least not in an integer multiple) to the 30 day suggests these two (80 & 30) are the distinct and notable periodic features.

Taking this phasing on the evidence, it looks bearish for Bitcoin. Bulls will hope the 30 day (troughing) continues to battle hard with it’s larger brother and push price a little further up against the 80 day’s down pressure over the next week or two. However, it is a fundamental feature of financial markets that power is distributed in a ~ 1/f manner in the frequency domain, so the 80 day will exert it’s dominance in time.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Bitcoin 22nd September 2025
Entry: 22nd September 2025 @ 112736.59
Exit: 22nd October 2025 @ 108329.60
Gain: - 3.91%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

We have held off, slightly, updating the 80 day cycle in Bitcoin (the ‘big brother’) due to the continued influence of it’s feisty little brother around 30 days. That smaller cycle continues to be out of phase with it’s more powerful and larger sibling, producing the fairly choppy price action we see as these two battle. The 80 day has likely now troughed and is starting to influence to the upside. Whilst the 30 day is still turned down the result is likely to be sideways price action. When these two combine and are both bullish then price should trend more smoothly. The 30 day trough is due toward the end of September so bullish traders may wish to sit on their hands until then.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Sell - Bitcoin 18th July 2025
Entry: 28th July 2025 @ 119273.69
Exit: 22nd September 2025 @ 112045.48
Gain: 6.06%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Here we return to look at the excellent ~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin, a smaller, less powerful but no less stationary brother of the 80 day cycle we have covered many times on the site. It is another interesting period because these two features are out of phase at the troughing zone of the larger feature. In the past, interactions between these two will result in general sideways price action as the two fight for dominance. The 80 day phase wins over time (1/f power distribution in freq domain) but at the outset of the initial move up the 30 day has recently shown enough power to push price around until it’s own phase is aligned. Some examples of this are highlighted below in the charts.

The 30 day cycle itself is phased to be peaking here with a trough at the end of the month. If price moves generally sideways until then expect an explosion of bullish pressure as big and little brother combine at the next trough of the 30 day.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

A fairly uniform and linear up-leg in the latest installment of the excellent ~ 80 day cycle in Bitcoin approaches the next peak here. The smaller and less powerful ~ 30 day wave is still exerting some influence at the smaller scale and may provide a touch more upside in the coming week. It’s power is relatively puny next to this larger feature though and traders should focus on the 80 day in our opinion. A comparison of the two cycles’ amplitude is shown below. The ~30 day feature has been notable since mid 2024 and has been reported several times on the site in the past few months. We anticipate the next trough of the ~ 80 day cycle to be due mid September, at the current wavelength. Amplitude has diminished somewhat since February - May this year judging by the current price position in the latest up leg. This may reflect the peaking phase of a larger component.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Buy - Bitcoin 23rd June 2025
Entry: 23rd June 2025 @ 105419.39
Exit: 28th July 2025 @ 118255.98
Gain: 12.18%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Since our last report on this excellent short term cycle from June 13th, price has printed a fairly sideways up leg. We know that the larger wave, around 85 days, is now pushing up, suggesting that if the next down leg of this smaller and less powerful component is also generally sideways, bullish moves await at the start of July.

In general financial markets show a ~ 1/f distribution of power in the frequency domain (power decreases with increasing frequency) so the larger wave should be given more weight and will influence price action more. The exception to this is when the larger wave is at an inflection point and the power (correlation to price) is negligible, smaller cycles can then dominate. In price action this would be seen as a sideways move for the larger wave and within it a smaller component is dominant. See below charts for a couple of examples where the underlying trend is flat and the ~ 30 day wave comes to the fore.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Late Buy - Bitcoin 13th June 2025
Entry: 13th June 2025 @ 106118.70
Exit: 27th June 2025 @ 106930.66
Gain: 0.77%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

A bullish up leg for the latest move via the 80 day component in Bitcoin, a cycle that has been fairly stable for a few years now and one which we have highlighted many times on Sigma-L. We now reach the troughing zone for this wave and should see a retest of the recent highs (at least) given the underlying bullish trend. At the time of writing we are within the troughing zone but be mindful of sharp spikes down within this latest inflection period - especially from macro news events.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - BTCUSD 1st May 2025
Entry: 1st May 2025 @ 95524.98
Exit: 23rd June 2025 @ 101799.92
Gain: - 5.46%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

The ~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin continues unabated, likely putting in the cycle and price low around June 5th after a mild latest down leg. Although the move up has been quite strong thus far, in the recent two days we have seen a decent pullback suggesting some remaining bearish sentiment. We mentioned in the previous report of a possible ~ 3:1 harmonic ratio with the cycle around 80 days, implying this iteration of the 30 day may well be more bearish in it’s conclusion. With that in mind, this particular long should be treated with a great deal of caution, although technically it is a valid cycle low at this scale. We show both cycles below in the time frequency analysis.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Bitcoin 22nd May 2025
Entry: 22nd May 2025 @ 111722.53
Exit: 13th June 2025 @ 105304.56
Gain: 5.74%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

The ~ 30 day cycle in Bitcoin continues to be well defined in the frequency domain at wavelengths less than ~ 50 days. The most recent trough was largely a bullish affair producing sideways action prior to the move up of the last week. We now enter the next peak of this short term component. It is likely that the low point in late March - early April this year was a larger magnitude cycle and this has been responsible for the sustained bullish price action. Looking at a phasing of Bitcoin in a longer context there is a broad, noisy range of power around 200 days that is perhaps the origin, shown below. However, due to the modulation involved with such a broad spread of frequencies it should be treated with caution as a speculative tool.

We have also shown the 30 day wave in the context of the 80 day below, an interesting harmonic ratio is present, around 3:1, evident since mid 2024!

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Some clarity appears to have returned to the medium length cycles in Bitcoin as power has consolidated around this 80 day area. The previous burst of what we thought was transitory power around 60 days has now diminished, this signal receives an upgrade to a ‘B’ category as a result. With the smaller cycle around 30 days also peaking any remaining upside here will be the result of larger cycles. If there is very little and we see a substantial retrace, we can reasonably assume larger cycles are pushing down. A more restrained retrace or sideways price action into June will indicate a larger cycle is influencing price and has troughed in early April.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Bitcoin 24th March 2025
Entry: 24th March 2025 @ 87523.62
Exit: 1st May 2025 @ 95111.40
Gain: 8.67%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Once again this metronomic feature in Bitcoin provided a good signal for upside price action from early April. Continuing to be well isolated in the frequency domain this cycle is useful in itself as we patiently await clarity at the longer wavelengths (notably 60/80 days, shown below) to exhibit better stationarity. Whilst the component around 60 days is currently phased as hard down, price has held up quite well, suggesting the more consistent 80 day feature is more powerful (late up). That said, we have a confusing picture, objectively, from the time frequency analysis around that bandwidth. Therefore it is likely wise to stick to the ~ 30 day component described here for short term trading purposes, a highly profitable cycle in itself and now approaching it’s next peak.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Buy - Bitcoin 17th April 2025
Entry: 17th April 2025 @ 79140.01
Exit: 22nd April 2025 @ 88140.29
Gain: 11.37%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Once again this shorter term wave in Bitcoin has dictated price action through a relatively mild down leg in comparison to other major markets, macro news increasing amplitude in equity indices serving as one example. It is worth noting that this wave (around 30-35 days) also exists in equity indices, varying more by amplitude, not timing (frequency). Clearly the equity indices took a much bigger hammering via the news catalyst than Bitcoin recently and this resilience was definitely interesting to note. Some analysts have deemed it a ‘de-coupling’ moment. In the context of our analysis we see the couple walking together, but one is swinging their legs wildly!

We are slightly early into reporting the next trough for this cycle so readers should bear that in mind. However, we are well within the margin of error for the frequency modulation attached to this component which serves as a vital guide in the context of financial market cycle analysis. We have upgraded this signal to a ‘B’ category given it’s continued stationarity.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Sell - Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 21st March 2025
Entry: 21st March 2025 @ 84061.96
Exit: 7th April 2025 @ 75146.19
Gain: 10.61%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

At the medium term cycle range the 80 day wave is now at the troughing stage, according to the latest phasing. Interference from the power at around 60 days, outlined in the last report, is still present and therefore this signal maintains a ‘C’ rating in our system. Keen readers will note the out of phase alignment with the recently updated and excellent 30 day cycle, which, on the objective evidence from our time frequency analysis, has peaked.

This is the point where the distribution of power in the frequency domain becomes important - lower frequency (longer wavelength) cycles have more influence (a higher amplitude) over price than smaller waves. This can be seen in the ~ 1/f spectra (power decreases with increasing frequency) when looking at financial market spectra, a phenomenon common in natural systems and which implies a fractal structure. There can be occasions, usually transitory, where higher frequencies exhibit equal or more power than their lower frequency counterparts. This is often observed when the phase of the larger component is at or near an inflection point such as a peak or trough - where it approaches zero power. Think of consolidation or sideways ranges in traditional technical analysis terms, these are periods in which a lower frequency cycle is either peaking or troughing.

So, in this case the larger cycle (~ 80 days) should have more power and therefore nullify the bearish influence from the smaller (~ 30 day) wave somewhat. In contrast, when cycles of significant power across the spectra are in phase, a recent example being mid February (30 & 80 both hard down), more powerful moves occur.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Sell - Bitcoin 13th February 2025
Entry: 13th February 2025 @ 97509.03
Exit: 26th March 2025 @ 87291.29
Gain: 10.48%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

Although somewhat early with this update on the excellent 30 day cycle feature in Bitcoin, it is worth noting the peaking phase of this component, in isolation, prior to the weekend. As we mentioned in the previous report, the medium term cycle battle between two features (~ 60 & 80 day wavelengths) continues and the fairly asinine leg up from this smaller feature is perhaps indicative of a further decline. Taken in isolation the phase of this component is near to the peak, with perhaps a couple of days either side to contend with as a margin of error. Due to the recent good stationarity of this cycle (indeed that is why we feature it on Sigma-L), it should be noted!

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Buy - Bitcoin 10th March 2025
Entry: 10th March 2025 @ 78544.71
Exit: 21st March 2025 @ 85685.81
Gain: 9.09%

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

As we await the progress and resolution in the battle for the dominant daily cycles, outlined in February (60/80 day waves), the smaller waves continue to influence to a good degree. This wave’s previously sideways up-leg a potent warning for a good short to come during late February and into early March - which manifested well. We also saw a significant rise in amplitude at even shorter cycles after much macro speculation surrounded cryptocurrency. This turned out to be another bull trap, sprung March 2nd.

This cycle, around 30 days average wavelength is due a trough. If the previously mentioned 60 day wave is indeed still dominant, it is in phase and should combine with the smaller wave to increase bullish power. If, however, the 80 day wave is reasserting it’s dominance, the move from this smaller wave is likely to be relatively benign as the phase of these two are inverted, as shown below.

Trade Update

Summary of the most recent trade enacted with this signal and according to the time prediction detailed in the previous report for this instrument, linked below.

Type: Early Sell - Bitcoin 18th February 2025
Entry: 18th February 2025 @ 95607.40
Exit: 10th March 2025 @ 81832.78
Gain: 14.41%

Time Frequency Analysis

Time frequency charts (learn more) below will typically show the cycle of interest against price, the bandpass output alone and the bandwidth of the component in the time frequency heatmap, framed in white.

Before and After

Signal comparison between our last report and the current time, in chart format.

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ΣL Cycle Summary

In this Bitcoin miners ETF (WGMI), a relatively new instrument, we have a striking periodic feature which is defining movement within a gentle uptrend since 2023. Running at a wavelength of around 160 days, this component has gradually increased in power over the last 3 years and is now highly stationary in both frequency and amplitude. The phase is currently near the next trough iteration so subscribers should be on alert for a buy in this ETF shortly. An up leg with similar amplitude to the most recent down leg should see the highs tested once again. We also note (at the time of writing) the bullish cycle shape forming for this cycle iteration with a clear higher low.

Time Frequency Analysis

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ΣL Cycle Summary

The most recent ‘up leg’ of this cycle has been tediously weak. In fact the volatility is probably the lowest on record for Bitcoin. What are some of the drivers behind this apparent flat-lining from a spectral analysis perspective? Well, the most coherent we can note is two waves interacting with each other at nearly opposite phase. The two components in question here are the ~ 80 day wave and the ~ 30 day wave, the subject of this report. Whilst the smaller wave has been in it’s up phase, the longer (and theoretically more powerful) wave has been peaking. The net effect is to create sideways price action, a zone of uncertainty or indecision. What we anticipate next is bearish price action as both these components start to move together (being in phase), downwards. This signal just about maintains a ‘C’ rating and inclusion on Sigma-L, we will continue to monitor it’s power until the next trough, due early-mid March, as detailed below.

Time Frequency Analysis

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